BOMBSHELL: Tigers in talks with Galvin over immediate release pending conditions

Dolphins

Round 12: Bulldogs (A) — W

Round 13: Bye

Round 14: Dragons (H)

Round 15: Cowboys (A)

Round 16: Knights (H)

Round 17: Rabbitohs (H)

Round 18: Bye

Round 19: Sharks (A)

Analysis: An away trip, albeit against an injury-hit and Origin-impacted Bulldogs team, was far from an easy task first up for the Dolphins. A winnable stretch of games against the Dragons, Cowboys, Knights and Rabbitohs follows and all four games will be in Queensland, which helps. But an away trip to Cronulla in Round 19 will be tough and unless the Dolphins win all four games in between their byes, it is hard to see them challenging for the finals.

Gold Coast Titans

Round 12: Bye

Round 13: Storm (H)

Round 14: Broncos (A)

Round 15: Sea Eagles (H)

Round 16: Eels (A)

Round 17: Cowboys (H)

Round 18: Bye

Round 19: Broncos (H)

Analysis: At this point, the focus for the Titans isn’t making the eight but just avoiding the wooden spoon. Tough games against the Storm, Broncos (away) and Sea Eagles won’t help. Neither will losing key starting forwards Moeaki Fotuaika and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui. With those two unavailable and a far from favourable draw on the horizon, it is hard to see the Titans lifting themselves off the bottom of the ladder.

Manly Sea Eagles

Round 12: Eels (A) — L

Round 13: Broncos (H)

Round 14: Knights (A)

Round 15: Titans (A)

Round 16: Bye

Round 17: Tigers (H)

Round 18: Rabbitohs (H)

Round 19: Bye

Analysis: The Sea Eagles have struggled for consistency this season, but the Origin period could finally see them put wins together. Losing Daly Cherry-Evans won’t help, but playing the Broncos (home), Knights, Titans, Tigers and Rabbitohs will. Add in two byes and Manly is set up to really cement its spot in the eight. Having Tom Trbojevic available will also help, although as Roach noted this isn’t the normal version of the Sea Eagles fullback.

“It’s been sad watching him run around at the moment,” Roach said. “Obviously he’s trying to get himself into Origin the last two weeks. He’s been heavily strapped… he’s been trying, he’s been getting plenty of carries, plenty of opportunities with the ball. But he’s just not moving as good as what he used to. At his best, he’s near on the best player in the game, but at the moment he’s struggling.” Meanwhile, Manly has traditionally struggled without skipper Daly Cherry-Evans. The Sea Eagles’ win record drops from 53 per cent with Cherry-Evans to under 40 without him, while they’ve lost three of their past four with him missing. But Roach thinks the Origin arena could be exactly what Cherry-Evans needs. “To be brutally honest with you I think Cherry-Evans has dropped off since he decided to leave,” Roach said. “I don’t think that he’s hit the heights of the expectation of him. We all know he’s a great player…. I think he’s been a little bit distracted, a little bit disappointed in not being a one-club player and moving on next year. He’s got to get that out of his mind but what better way to do it than in Origin.”

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Melbourne Storm

Round 12: Bye

Round 13: Titans (A)

Round 14: Cowboys (H)

Round 15: Bye

Round 16: Rabbitohs (A)

Round 17: Sharks (H)

Round 18: Cowboys (A)

Round 19: Knights (A)

Analysis: The Storm are the ultimate professionals in the Origin period, although it could be different this time around given the inconsistency Craig Bellamy called out in his side after last week’s loss to Cronulla. The draw is kind to Melbourne from an opposition standpoint, with the Storm facing the Titans, Cowboys (twice), Rabbitohs and Knights along with a tough game against the Sharks. The only challenge is the fact they will travel to face all of those teams except for Cronulla. But a pair of byes early in the Origin period should help too.

Newcastle Knights

Round 12: Panthers (A)

Round 13: Dragons (A)

Round 14: Titans (H)

Round 15: Sea Eagles (H)

Round 16: Dolphins (A)

Round 17: Raiders (H)

Round 18: Bye

Round 19: Storm (H)

Analysis: Adam O’Brien and the Knights are under all kinds of pressure and while Kalyn Ponga’s absence is a crushing blow for a team that has struggled to score points all year, the next month presents an opportunity for Newcastle to turn it around. It starts with a winnable game against an undermanned Panthers side before an away trip to take on the Dragons, followed by home games against the Titans and Sea Eagles. A trip up north to face the Dolphins precedes a tough three weeks with a bye in between games against the Raiders and Storm. Should the Knights not win at least three of their next five games and be anchored to the bottom of the ladder, the outside noise will only continue to grow. The attack has been particularly uninspiring, with the Knight scoring a league-low 128 points — just four better than 2022, the only season they missed the finals under O’Brien’s watch. Ponga’s Origin selection will only make it tougher for the Knights, who Roach said are forcing the fullback to “do it on his own” too much. “They’re a little bit side to side, they don’t win the right to go down those edges and get the ball to blokes like Ponga or Best,” Roach said. “The expectation of Ponga all the time is that he should be scoring a try. He hasn’t scored a try this year, but he’s put on seven. He’s had seven try assists so you would think in the tip sheets when you’re playing against Newcastle that Ponga would feature pretty highly on the blokes that you’re going to stop. I still think he’s playing well, he can break tackles and he’s setting up plays, but he’s just probably not getting the quality ball from the halves at the moment who spring him free.” The Knights have lost four of their last five without Ponga.

North Queensland Cowboys

Round 12: Bye

Round 13: Tigers (H)

Round 14: Storm (A)

Round 15: Dolphins (H)

Round 16: Roosters (A)

Round 17: Titans (A)

Round 18: Storm (H)

Round 19: Bulldogs (H)

Analysis: The Cowboys are resting up this week and host the Tigers in Round 13 before a tough trip to Melbourne is followed by a tricky game against the Dolphins who, while struggling this year, always seem to lift their game against fellow Queensland teams. Two winnable games against the Roosters and Titans follow before an Origin-impacted encounter with Melbourne in Round 18. The Cowboys will have a chance in that game, but four North Queensland players have been picked for Origin in Game 1 and so there is every chance Melbourne’s superior depth is the difference in that one. A home game against the ladder-leading Bulldogs follows.

Parramatta Eels

Round 12: Sea Eagles (H) — W

Round 13: Panthers (A)

Round 14: Bulldogs (A)

Round 15: Bye

Round 16: Titans (H)

Round 17: Dragons (A)

Round 18: Bye

Round 19: Panthers (H)

Analysis: The Eels are stuck near the bottom of the ladder and in desperate need of wins to keep their slim hopes of playing finals football alive. Fortunately for them, they get a Manly team minus its Origin stars this week while both games against Western Sydney rivals Penrith will come with the Panthers’ representative players either backing up or resting. Add in a pair of byes and games against the Dragons and Titans and the Eels have a pretty soft stretch of games in the Origin period, which should at least help them move away from the bottom of the ladder.

Penrith Panthers

Round 12: Knights (H)

Round 13: Eels (H)

Round 14: Tigers (A)

Round 15: Bye

Round 16: Warriors (A)

Round 17: Bulldogs (H)

Round 18: Bye

Round 19: Eels (A)

Analysis: Losing their biggest names to Origin is nothing new for the Panthers, but this year it’s going to be a little different. There is no safety net for Penrith to fall back on. With just three wins and nine points from their first 10 games of the season, there isn’t much margin for error if the Panthers are to make a push for the finals and a fifth-straight premiership. Further to the headache of dealing with the Origin period, Penrith’s depth will also be tested like never before. Inexperience in key positions has led to miscommunication in attack and, as a result, errors throughout this season. With Nathan Cleary, Isaah Yeo and Dylan Edwards out of the picture, the Panthers will be looking to captain Mitch Kenny and fill-in halfback Brad Schneider for direction. Roach said the constant “cherry-picking” of talent is “the worst thing to happen” to the Panthers. “I don’t know if I agree with it, I know you can’t keep everyone but the poor buggers, every time they win a premiership, they get decimated,” he added. “When you have a look at the Panthers side this week in Bathurst, there’s a lot of guys that have had plenty of first grade experience. I think their pathways program up there is unbelievable. If you have a look at what they’ve done in the lower grades over the last few years, they’ve been highly successful, they bring players through.” The Panthers will be leaning on some of that homegrown talent, including Casey McLean, Daine Laurie, Izack Tago, Lindsay Smith and Liam Henry among others to get them through the testing Origin period. Although, working in their favour is the fact their two byes fall on Origin-impacted rounds while games against the Knights, Eels and Tigers are all very winnable. Realistically, after their bye in Round 15 the Panthers could be sitting on 17 points with a 6-1-6 record.

South Sydney Rabbitohs

Round 12: Bye

Round 13: Warriors (H)

Round 14: Raiders (A)

Round 15: Bulldogs (H)

Round 16: Storm (H)

Round 17: Dolphins (A)

Round 18: Sea Eagles (A)

Round 19: Bye

Analysis: Latrell Mitchell is the only South Sydney player who will feature in Game 1, so there is an opportunity for a resurgent Rabbitohs team to continue their push towards the top eight. It won’t come easy though, with games against all of the top-four teams in the coming weeks before away trips to face the Dolphins and Sea Eagles. Working in their favour, however, is the fact they will play both the Bulldogs and Sea Eagles without their Origin players while the Storm’s representative stars will be backing up just three days after Game 2.

St. George Illawarra Dragons

Round 12: Bye

Round 13: Knights (H)

Round 14: Dolphins (A)

Round 15: Sharks (A)

Round 16: Bye

Round 17: Eels (H)

Round 18: Raiders (A)

Round 19: Roosters (H)

Analysis: The Dragons are another team who sit on the fringe of the top eight and it’s a mixed bag for the Red V during the Origin period. The Knights, Dolphins and Eels are all winnable games while the Sharks, Raiders (both away) and Roosters will pose bigger tests. The realistic goal should be winning at least three games.

Sydney Roosters

Round 12: Sharks (H)

Round 13: Raiders (H)

Round 14: Bye

Round 15: Knights (A)

Round 16: Cowboys (H)

Round 17: Bye

Round 18: Tigers (H)

Round 19: Dragons (A)

Analysis: The Roosters have been hit hard by Origin, even with James Tedesco missing out on selection, and they aren’t helped by the fact both their byes coming during rounds (14 and 17) where their representative stars will be available. It is a tough break for Trent Robinson’s side, who sit 11th on the ladder and have tough games against the Sharks and Raiders before their first bye. Their next four games are winnable, but even the Tigers could be a good chance of causing an upset in Round 18 considering their form and lack of Origin representatives. Although former Tigers fullback Tedesco could have a say about that and Roach said his inclusion during the Origin period will be key. In fact, Roach went as far as to declare tedesco is “playing better now” than when he captained Australia. “I loved a couple of years ago when he sort of hit a little bit of a flat spot he reinvented himself. I think he’s done that again this year,” Roach said. “I think he’s playing better now than when he was captain of Australia. Maybe the age thing has got into people’s minds but if you look just on pure football, he’s a magnificent player and he’s one of those guys who is wholehearted and it doesn’t matter who he’s playing with you’ll get exactly the same from Teddy.”

Warriors

Round 12: Raiders (H)

Round 13: Rabbitohs (A)

Round 14: Sharks (A)

Round 15: Bye

Round 16: Panthers (H)

Round 17: Broncos (A)

Round 18: Bye

Round 19: Tigers (H)

Analysis: The Warriors begin the Origin period by hosting the Raiders in a top-four blockbuster which will see both teams close to full-strength, with Young being Canberra’s only representative player. They then face tricky away games against the Rabbitohs and Sharks before a Round 15 bye. The Panthers aren’t the same force they have been in previous seasons, but the Warriors will benefit from playing Penrith shortly after Game 2. They host that game too, so the Panthers may opt against taking their stars on an away trip across the ditch. A trip to Brisbane follows before a Round 18 bye and home game against the Tigers. It is a mixed bag for the Warriors but they should be able to win at least three of the games, building on what has been a “magnificent” turnaround under Andrew Webster according to Roach. “They lost their way a little bit last year,” Roach said. “If you think back to the year before they were on fire. I loved the style they played, nice and flat and fast with players in motion, but they sort of rested on their laurels a little bit and didn’t look as energetic last year. He’s done a magnificent job this year. You consider they’ve done a lot of the season without Fisher-Harris who they brought to be their enforcer and the leader of the pack… and no Roger Tuivasa-Sheck for a long period of time. So, they’ve got some depth over there in New Zealand.”

Wests Tigers

Round 12: Bye

Round 13: Cowboys (A)

Round 14: Panthers (H)

Round 15: Bye

Round 16: Raiders (H)

Round 17: Sea Eagles (A)

Round 18: Roosters (A)

Round 19: Warriors (A)

Analysis: The Tigers look all but certain to avoid the wooden spoon this year, while a finals berth isn’t out of the picture either. A tough trip to North Queensland looms in Round 13, although the Cowboys will have their Origin contingent backing up on short notice, if they play at all. They also will benefit from being able to play a likely Origin-depleted Roosters team in Round 18. It is a tricky draw on paper for the Tigers overall though.

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