We are closing in on the 2025 NRL finals series, with just five rounds remaining as the race for top eight spots heats up.
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Entering Round 23 this week, only eight points separate the sixth-placed Broncos (28pts) and 12th-placed Tigers (20pts).
The Fox Sports Lab has crunched the numbers to produce every team’s top eight and top four chances as well as the likelihood of winning the minor premiership which, for now, appears to be a race between four.
Look away if you are a Knights, Titans, Rabbitohs, Eels, Cowboys or Tigers fan, as according to the Lab, your season is done, although you probably knew that already.
Raiders, Bulldogs and Storm fans can already rejoice, with your teams rated a 100% chance of making the eight, with the Warriors also virtually guaranteed to be playing finals.
Note: Teams are listed below in order of the current NRL ladder.
Dodd free to leave | 00:20
1. CANBERRA RAIDERS (36 points, +152)
Predicted finish: 2nd
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 99.3%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 33.4%
Remaining games: Sea Eagles (H), Bye, Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Dolphins (A)
Analysis: The Raiders’ shock 18-12 loss to the Dragons ended their nine match winning streak and closed the gap in the minor premiership race. Next up is a clash with the struggling Sea Eagles before their final bye, so it is crucial they get back in the winner’s circle. Ricky Stuart faces a challenge between going after a long-awaited first minor premiership in 35 years and resting some of his stars to ensure they are ready to make a tilt at a drought-breaking first title since 1994. But with five games to go and a soft draw, the Raiders look certainties for a top two finish and two chances at home finals at GIO Stadium.
2. MELBOURNE STORM (34 points, +228)
Predicted finish: 1st
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 98.1%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 50.6%
Remaining games: Broncos (H), Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H), Roosters (H), Broncos (A)
Analysis: The Storm got the job done against the Eels, but the 16-10 win was hardly convincing. However, given their strong points differential they are closing in on the Raiders for the minor premiership. Next up the Storm next face the Broncos, who they play twice in a tough run home that includes clashes with the Bulldogs and Panthers. With no more byes, Craig Bellamy will have to juggle his stars if he wants to give them a freshen up before the finals, which could make it even more difficult for them to run down the Raiders and Bulldogs for a top two finish. However, this team is trying to avenge last year’s Grand Final loss and at this stage with the class in their team, they are still the favourites to go all the way in 2025.
3. CANTERBURY BULLDOGS (34 points, +122)
Predicted finish: 3rd
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 92.2%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 15%
Remaining games: Warriors (H), Roosters (A), Storm (A), Panthers (H), Sharks (H)
Analysis: The 28-14 loss to the Tigers was a huge setback for the Bulldogs, and they were shown up by a struggling side in a game they were heavy favourites to win. The Tigers earned bragging rights over Lachlan Galvin, who played his first game against his former club. Now Galvin’s fitness is under a cloud after picking up hand and ankle injuries in the loss to the Tigers. He has been named to take on the Warriors, but there’s no guarantee he’ll play, with Toby Sexton and 19-year-old young gun Mitchell Woods named in the reserves as cover for him. The Bulldogs have a difficult run home, with two games against top four opponents in the Warriors and the Storm, and a clash against the resurgent premiers Penrith. While they should still reach the top four, the loss to the Tigers has put a huge dent in their top two chances.
‘Offended’: Legends hit back at Tigers | 03:22
4. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (30 points, +26)
Predicted finish: 4th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 97.5%
Chance of finishing top four: 43.7%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.4%
Remaining games: Bulldogs (A), Dragons (H), Titans (A), Eels (H), Sea Eagles (A)
Analysis: The Warriors have now lost two on the trot after their 20-18 nail-biter against the Dolphins and now face a battle to keep their top four spot with the Panthers and Broncos in hot pursuit. The Warriors began life without Luke Metcalf with back-to-back wins over the Tigers and Knights after he was rubbed out for the season with an ACL injury, but the back-to-back losses has raised doubts about their title credentials. Tanah Boyd has been solid after being given first crack at replacing Metcalf, but it remains to be seen if he can mix it with the elite playmakers in the NRL come finals time. The Warriors face a huge test against the Dolphins this week, but a soft run home should ensure they squeak into the top four. However, there are doubts they have the quality in the halves to go all the way for a maiden title.
5. PENRITH PANTHERS (29 points, +83)
Predicted finish: 5th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 97.4%
Chance of finishing top four: 35.3%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.5%
Remaining games: Knights (A), Storm (H), Raiders (H), Bulldogs (A), Dragons (A)
Analysis: The Panthers are well and truly back on track for a shot at a ridiculous fifth straight title after beating the Titans 30-26 for their eighth straight victory to keep their top four hopes alive. Apart from Isaah Yeo the Panthers now boasting a fully fit roster at the right time of the season. The fact NSW lost the Origin series is a bad sign for the rest of the NRL because Nathan Cleary’s desire to prove his critics wrong with a fifth straight premiership is now burning even brighter. Penrith have jumped the Broncos into fifth and face the Knights this week before a clash with the Storm, so a top four finish is not out of the question if the Warriors falter.
‘Greatest recruitment blunder ever?!’ | 03:01
6. BRISBANE BRONCOS (28 points, +124)
Predicted finish: 8th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 89.1%
Chance of finishing top four: 12.7%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.1%
Remaining games: Storm (A), Dolphins (H), Knights (A), Cowboys (A), Storm (H)
Analysis: The Broncos kept their top four hopes alive with a 60-14 thrashing of the Rabbitohs to improve their points differential. Ben Hunt is back in form with the Broncos finally unleashing their all star spine including Reece Walsh, Ezra Mam and Adam Reynolds and they will only get better with the more games they play. Walsh has come a long way this season and he and Mam hold the key to the Broncos’ title charge. Along with the Panthers, the Broncos are one of the teams outside the top four that can go all the way this season. Their acid test will be two clashes with the Storm on the run home starting this week and a home final in week one looks set to be a tall order.
7. CRONULLA SHARKS (28 points, +43)
Predicted finish: 7th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 89.6%
Chance of finishing top four: 9.4%
Chance of winning minor premiership: –
Remaining games: Dragons (A), Titans (H), bye, Knights (H), Bulldogs (A)
Analysis: The Sharks have now won four on the trot after beating the Cowboys 32-12 to keep their slim top four chances alive. Nicho Hynes has finally found a purple patch of form and if the Sharks are to make the top eight and do anything come finals time, he needs his fingerprints all over the team’s performances. The Sharks face arch rivals the Dragons next, which is a good chance to improve their points differential in a tight race. However, a soft draw on the way home, including a bye means the Sharks are favoured to make it to the finals and potentially challenge for the top four. And with Addin Fonua-Blake in the team, they have all the ingredients to make a splash once they get to the finals.
Is Souths’ ‘top 8 side’ in spoon danger? | 01:15
8. DOLPHINS (26 points, +171)
Predicted finish: 6th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 85.5%
Chance of finishing top four: 8.9%
Chance of winning minor premiership: –
Remaining games: Roosters (H), Broncos (A), Sea Eagles (A), Titans (H), Raiders (H)
Analysis: The Dolphins upset the Warriors 20-18 despite being reduced to 12 men in a comeback win and now have their destiny in their own hands. Given their massive points differential advantage and relatively soft draw on the way home, they are on track for a maiden finals berth. Kodi Nikorima has returned to the side in a huge boost in their charge to the finals. Their next clash is against the Roosters in a huge clash to decide which of the two sides play finals, before a clash with arch rivals the Broncos. And given their brilliant and unpredictable attack led by Isaiya Katoa and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, the Dolphins are a team no one will want to play come finals time, home or away, in what will be a historic first NRL post-season appearance for the club.
9. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (24 points, +20)
Predicted finish: 9th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 24.5%
Chance of finishing top four: 0.2%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Dolphins (A), Bulldogs (H), Eels (A), Storm (A), Rabbitohs (H)
Analysis: The Roosters snapped their two game slide with a 20-4 victory over the Sea Eagles, but still face an uphill battle to play finals. Sam Walker has returned at halfback and looms as their trump card as they battle for a finals spot over the remaining five games, but the halves have been a revolving door in the last three weeks, which has upset the side’s rhythm. Trent Robinson’s side face the Dolphins next in a crucial clash and will have to play the Storm again and the Bulldogs in a tough run home. The Roosters have the class across the park to be a handful for any team in the finals, although their tough fixtures list might make it hard for them to squeak in — but top eight teams beware if they do.
10. MANLY SEA EAGLES (24 points, +6)
Predicted finish: 10th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 15.9%
Chance of finishing top four: 0.2%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Raiders (A), Tigers (A), Dolphins (H), Dragons (A), Warriors (H)
Analysis: Manly dropped their second game in a row with a 20-4 loss to the Roosters and with a tough draw on the run home it will be difficult make the top eight. The Sea Eagles next face the Raiders, who will be smarting coming off a loss, so they will need to cause some more upsets and hope other results go their way if they want to feature in September footy. A poor points differential means they need some big wins in the last five weeks and unless they can go on a run they will struggle to make it, especially with just two home games left.
11. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (20 points, -58)
Predicted finish: 11th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0.4%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Sharks (H), Warriors (A), Rabbitohs (A), Sea Eagles (H), Panthers (H)
Analysis: The Dragons upset the Raiders 18-12 to snap their nine game winning streak, but it was too little too late for their finals hopes. Jaydn Su’A is out with a knee injury and it appears their injury toll, especially in the forwards is catching up with them over the course of a long season. The Dragons have competed in most games this year, but their defence has seen them lose a lot of tight ones and that is the difference between playing finals and not. A tough clash at home against the flying Sharks is up next, before a tough run home that will make it difficult for the Dragons to win many more games this year. It will be interesting to see if Shane Flanagan gives some younger players a crack in the remaining games because their finals hopes are over and some members of their excellent NSW Cup side have been knocking on the door for a while.
Cam Munster free to explore Perth switch | 02:22
12. WESTS TIGERS (20 points, -121)
Predicted finish: 12th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Bye, Sea Eagles (H), Cowboys (H), Raiders (A), Titans (A)
Analysis: The Tigers have won three of their last five games after their upset 28-14 victory over the Bulldogs in the Lachlan Galvin Cup. The Tigers have welcomed back Jahream Bula at fullback and class at fullback and Adam Doueihi is forming a good combination with Jarome Luai in the halves. The Tigers have the bye this week, which could see them move up the ladder without playing, before a home clash with Manly in Round 24. If they can stay out of the bottom four it will be a successful season after winning three straight wooden spoons and Benji Marshall can secure his future with a big finish to the year.
13. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (19 points, -177)
Predicted finish: 14th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Eels (A), Knights (H), Tigers (A), Broncos (H), bye
Analysis: The Cowboys put in one of their worst performances of the season to go down 32-12 to the Sharks and their defence seems to go from bad to worse each week. The Cowboys have the second worst points differential in the NRL behind only the Rabbitohs and the worst defence having conceded the most points all year. The Cowboys face the Eels next up, but a soft draw on the way home could see them get out of the bottom four. Tom Dearden has been a revelation at halfback since his positional switch and the Cowboys have some young guns of the future, but until they address their horror defence they won’t be a finals team and Todd Payten’s future beyond 2025 is uncertain at best.
“He’s struggling”: Ivan defends trainer | 11:14
14. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (18 points, -116)
Predicted finish: 15th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Panthers (H), Cowboys (A), Broncos (H), Sharks (A), Eels (A)
Analysis: The Knights had the bye last round, which helped them rise up the ladder, after their 44-18 last start loss tot he Raiders. Dane Gagai has done an admirable job filling it for Kalyn Ponga and Fletcher Sharpe at the back, but without their captain the Knights don’t offer enough threats in attack. Reports coach Adam O’Brien will be sacked at the end of the year have only heaped pressure on the underperforming squad. Newcastle next face the Panthers and Cowboys and the spoon is still a realistic outcome for the Knights, who have a tough run home.
15. PARRAMATTA EELS (18 points, -153)
Predicted finish: 13th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (A), Roosters (H), Warriors (A), Knights (H)
Analysis: The Eels backed up their win over the Broncos with a gritty 16-10 loss to the Storm, who beat them 56-18 in Round 1, which shows how far they have come under Jason Ryles. Mitchell Moses has returned with a bang and left Eels fans wondering what might have been had he not been injured for most of the season. Ryles deserves plenty of credit for making some unpopular calls like dropping Dylan Brown, which have proved the right ones. They may not play finals this season, but they can still cause plenty of headaches over the next five weeks. A clash with the Cowboys next up is a good opportunity to climb up the ladder and with clashes with the Rabbitohs and Knights to come they can break out of the bottom four.
“I don’t care” Inglis chats Origin | 02:04
16. GOLD COAST TITANS (16 points, -153)
Predicted finish: 16th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Rabbitohs (H), Sharks (A), Warriors (H), Dolphins (A), Tigers (H)
Analysis: The Titans backed up their upset win over the Warriors by nearly knocking off the Panthers in a 26-30 loss. Trainer-gate has got plenty of air-time, but the Titans probably deserved to win this one and they are showing they can finish the season on a high. In Jayden Cambell and AJ Brimson the Titans have two attacking dynamos, but their defence too often has let them down this season. Des Hasler’s future at the club was considered over, but their resurgence means he may be given another chance next season. The Titans need to convince skipper Tino Fa’asuamaleaui that it is worth playing the rest of his career at the club and the key to that is fixing their defence and matching the top teams consistently. A clash with the Rabbitohs in Round 23 and the Tigers in the final round loom as their Grand Finals to avoid the wooden spoon.
17. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (16 points, -197)
Predicted finish: 17th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Titans (A), Eels (H), Dragons (H), bye, Roosters (A)
Analysis: The Rabbitohs’ horror casualty ward caught up with them in a 60-14 thrashing by the Broncos, which sees them as the favourites for the wooden spoon. The loss of Tevita Tatola to a shoulder injury added to Souths’ horror casualty ward, while Jack Wighton’s suspension and injuries to Cody Walker and a host of other stars will make it difficult for Souths to win another game. But they have plenty to play for, most notably avoiding a wooden spoon, which would be Wayne Bennett’s first in his decorated career. Souths have had a horror run with injuries this year, but they will be looking to finish the season strong to give them hope of turning things around in 2026. Souths face a huge clash with the Titans, before facing the Eels and Dragons before their final bye and their final round clash with the Roosters looms as their grand final, with a win potentially robbing the Chooks of a finals berth.
