We are over two-thirds through the 2025 NRL season, with just eight rounds remaining as the race for finals spots heats up.
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Entering Round 20, only six points separate the seventh-placed Sea Eagles (22pts) and 16th-placed Rabbitohs (16pts).
The Fox Sports Lab has crunched the numbers to produce every team’s top eight and top four chances as well as the likelihood of winning the minor premiership which, for now, appears to be a race between three.
Look away if you are a Titans or Rabbitohs fan, as according to the Lab, your season is all but done, although you probably knew that already.
Raiders and Storm fans can already rejoice, with your teams rated a 100% chance of making the eight, with the Bulldogs and Warriors also more or less guaranteed to be playing finals.
Note: Teams are listed below in order of the current NRL ladder.
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1. CANBERRA RAIDERS (32 points, +108)
Predicted finish: 2nd
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 97.8%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 30.3%
Remaining games: Eels (H), Knights (H), Dragons (A), Sea Eagles (H), Bye, Panthers (A), Tigers (H), Dolphins (A)
Analysis: The bye in Round 19 ensured the Raiders stay on top of the table with a two-point lead over the Storm albeit with a far inferior points differential. And with home clashes against the Eels and Knights next up, they will prove very hard for the Storm and Bulldogs to run down for the minor premiership, especially with another bye still to come. Ricky Stuart faces a challenge between going after a long-awaited minor premiership and resting some of his stars to ensure they are ready to make a tilt at a drought-breaking title. But with eight games to go and a soft draw, the Raiders look certainties for a top two finish and two chances at home finals at GIO Stadium.
2. MELBOURNE STORM (30 points, +220)
Predicted finish: 1st
Chance of finishing in top eight: 100%
Chance of finishing top four: 98.2%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 48.2%
Remaining games: Sea Eagles (H), Roosters (A), Eels (A), Broncos (H), Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H), Roosters (H), Broncos (A)
Analysis: The Storm rested Cameron Munster, but four of their Origin stars backed up to help lead the side to a 32-14 win over the Knights to keep the pressure on the Raiders for the minor premiership. Jahrome Hughes stepped up with four try assists as Melbourne proved a class above Newcastle. Next up the Storm face Manly at home and will want to win before a tough run home that sees them play the Roosters and Broncos twice and the Bulldogs and Panthers. With no more byes, Craig Bellamy will have to juggle his stars if he wants to give them a freshen up before the finals, which could make it difficult for them to run down the Raiders. However, this team is trying to avenge last year’s Grand Final loss and at this stage they are still the favourites to go all the way in 2025.
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Dogs’ react to Galvin starting at 7 | 01:56
3. CANTERBURY BANKSTOWN BULLDOGS (30 points, +96)
Predicted finish: 3rd
Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.9%
Chance of finishing top four: 91.4%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 16.5%
Remaining games: Dragons (H), Sea Eagles (H), Tigers (A), Warriors (H), Roosters (A), Storm (A), Panthers (H), Sharks (H)
Analysis: The Bulldogs produced a hard-fought 12-8 win over the Cowboys to keep themselves in the race for a top two finish, but it was hardly convincing. The Bulldogs have one of the best defences in the competition, but desperately need to find more in attack, which is why Lachlan Galvin has been brought in to play halfback this week against the Dragons. With Origin stars Stephen Crichton and Kurt Mann back on deck the Bulldogs could find their mojo against the Dragons this week, but a tough run home could make it tough to crack the top two.
4. NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS (28 points, +31)
Predicted finish: 4th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 99.4%
Chance of finishing top four: 80.2%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 4.8%
Remaining games: Knights (A), Titans (H), Dolphins (H), Bulldogs (A), Dragons (H), Titans (A), Eels (H), Sea Eagles (A)
Analysis: The Warriors began life without Luke Metcalf with a 34-14 win over the Tigers after he was rubbed out for the season with an ACL injury. Tanah Boyd was solid after being given first crack at replacing Metcalf, but it remains to be seen if he can mix it with the elite playmakers in the NRL come finals time. The Warriors should make light work of the Knights this weekend away and a soft run home should ensure they finish in the top four and potentially as high as second. However, there are doubts they have the quality in the halves to go all the way for a maiden title.
5. BRISBANE BRONCOS (24 points, +80)
Predicted finish: 6th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 78.0%
Chance of finishing top four: 6.7%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.1%
Remaining games: Bye, Eels (H), Rabbitohs (H), Storm (A), Dolphins (H), Knights (A), Cowboys (A), Storm (H)
Analysis: The Broncos weren’t perfect but proved too classy for the Titans in a 26-14 derby win. Ben Hunt made a successful return from a foot injury with the Broncos finally unleashing their all star spine including Reece Walsh, Ezra Mam and Adam Reynolds. Walsh has come a long way this season and a long with the Panthers, the Storm are one of the teams outside the top four that can go all the way this season. The Broncos have the bye this week, before home clashes with the Eels and Rabbitohs, but their acid test will be two clashes with the Storm on the run home and the top four looks set to be a bridge too far.
Knights under fire for McKinnon incident | 03:05
6. PENRITH PANTHERS (23 points, +25)
Predicted finish: 5th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 87%
Chance of finishing top four: 14.0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0.1%
Remaining games: Rabbitohs (H), Tigers (H), Titans (A), Knights (A), Storm (H), Raiders (H), Bulldogs (A), Dragons (A)
Analysis: The Panthers are well and truly back on track for a shot at a ridiculous 5th straight title after beating the Eels 32-10. Nathan Cleary came off the bench for the first time in his NRL career to help inspire his side to their fifth straight win, while Isaah Yeo also backed up from a disappointing Origin decider for the Blues, but both have been rested for this week against Souths. The fact NSW lost is a bad sign for the rest of the NRL because Cleary’s desire to prove his critics wrong with a fifth straight premiership is now burning even brighter. Penrith face the Rabbitohs this week before clashes with the Tigers, Titans and Knights, so a top four finish is not out of the question if the Warriors falter.
7. MANLY SEA EAGLES (22 points, +58)
Predicted finish: 8th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 57.9%
Chance of finishing top four: 3.8%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Storm (A), Bulldogs (A), Roosters (H), Raiders (A), Tigers (A), Dolphins (H), Dragons (A), Warriors (H)
Analysis: The bye in Round 19 got the Sea Eagles back in the top eight after the Dolphins’ loss, but they now face a make or break month of footy as far as their finals hopes are concerned. The Sea Eagles face the Storm, Bulldogs and Raiders away from home and the Roosters at home, so they will need to cause some upsets if they want to feature in September footy. A strong points differential looms as their trump card as they look to squeak into the finals, but unless they can go on a run they will struggle to make it, especially with just three home games left.
8. SYDNEY ROOSTERS (22 points, +21)
Predicted finish: 9th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 54.1%
Chance of finishing top four: 3.3%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Sharks (A), Storm (H), Sea Eagles (A), Dolphins (A). Bulldogs (H), Eels (A), Storm (A), Rabbitohs (H)
Analysis: The Roosters were not convincing in their 31-24 victory over the Dragons, but they did enough to get the job done away from home to get back into the top eight. Sam Walker returned for his first game of the season at halfback and looms as their trump card as they battle for a finals spot over the remaining eight games. Trent Robinson’s side next face the Sharks in a tough away clash, before a tough run home that sees them play the Storm twice and the Bulldogs. The Roosters have the class across the park to be a handful for any team in the finals, but their tough run home might make it hard for them to squeak in, but top eight teams beware if they do.
Knights respond to Ponga exit rumours | 04:56
9. CRONULLA SHARKS (22 points, 8)
Predicted finish: 7th
Chance of finishing top eight: 69.0%
Chance of finishing top four: 3.7%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Roosters (H), Rabbitohs (A), Cowboys (H), Dragons (A), Titans (H), bye, Knights (H), Bulldogs (A)
Analysis: The Sharks finally snapped their form slump with an important 24-12 win over one of their main rivals to squeak into the top eight in the Dolphins. Nicho Hynes had one of his best games of the season with a try assist and two tries and if the Sharks are to make the top eight and do anything come finals time, he needs his fingerprints all over the team’s performances. The Sharks face the Roosters in a crucial clash next up which could decide who of the two clubs makes it to September. However, a soft draw on the way home means the Sharks are favoured to make it to the finals and they have all the ingredients to make a splash once they get there.
10. DOLPHINS (20 points, +150)
Predicted finish: 9th
Chance of finishing in top eight: 46.6%
Chance of finishing top four: 1.0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Cowboys (H), Bye, Warriors (A), Roosters (H), Broncos (A), Sea Eagles (A), Titans (H), Raiders (H)
Analysis: The Dolphins missed a golden chance to cement their place in the top eight in their 24-12 loss to the Sharks, who jumped them on the ladder. However, given their massive points differential advantage and relatively soft draw on the way home, they are still on track for a maiden finals berth. The loss of Kodi Nikorima could prove tough to replace over the next month, but the Dolphins can get themselves back on track with a win over the Cowboys at home in Round 20 before their final bye. Given their brilliant and unpredictable attack led by Isaiya Katoa and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, the Dolphins are a team no one will want to play come finals time if they can get there.
11. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (18 points, -56)
Predicted finish: 11th
Chance of finishing top eight: 5.6%
Chance of finishing top four: 0.1%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Bulldogs (A), Cowboys (A), Raiders (H), Sharks (H), Warriors (A), Rabbitohs (A), Sea Eagles (H), Panthers (H)
Analysis: The Dragons gave it a fair crack in their 31-24 loss to the Roosters, but it appears their injury toll, especially in the forwards is catching up with them over the course of a long season. The Dragons have competed in most games this season, but their defence has seen them lose a lot of tight ones and that is the difference between playing finals and not. A tough away clash against the Bulldogs is up next before a tough run home that will make it difficult for the Dragons to win many more games this year. It will be interesting to see if Shane Flanagan gives some younger players a crack in the remaining games because their finals hopes look all but over.
12. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (17 points, -144)
Predicted finish: 13th
Chance of finishing top eight: 1.2%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Dolphins (A), Dragons (H), Sharks (A), Eels (A), Knights (H), Tigers (A), Broncos (H), bye
Analysis: The Cowboys finally got their horror defence in order against the Bulldogs, but their attack deserted them in a 12-8 loss that all but ended their finals hopes. The Cowboys have the second worst points differential in the NRL ahead of only the Titans, which will make it impossible for them to make the finals and the spoon is still a possibility. The Cowboys face the Dolphins away next up, but a soft draw on the way home could see them finish just outside the top eight. Tom Dearden has been a revelation at halfback since his positional switch and the Cowboys have some young guns of the future, but until they address their horror defence they won’t be a finals team and Todd Payten’s future bedyond 2025 is uncertain at best.
All Blacks off the table for Ponga? | 02:58
13. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (16 points, -85)
Predicted finish: 15th
Chance of finishing top eight: 0.2%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Warriors (H), Raiders (A), bye, Panthers (H), Cowboys (A), Broncos (H), Sharks (A), Eels (A)
Analysis: The Knights were right in their clash with the Storm until half-time, but as has been so often the case this season they weren’t able to play for a full 80 minutes to go down 32-14. Dane Gagai did an admirable job filling it for Kalyn Ponga and Fletcher Sharpe at the back, but without their captain the Knights don’t offer enough threats in attack. Reports Ponga is looking to leave the club for rugby union and coach Adam O’Brien will be sacked suggests the Knights season is about to implode. Clashes against the Warriors and Raiders next up before the bye means things are about to get even worse and the spoon is still a realistic outcome for the Knights who have a tough run home.
14. WESTS TIGERS (16 points, -102)
Predicted finish: 14th
Chance of finishing top eight: 0.3%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Titans (H), Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H), bye, Sea Eagles (H), Cowboys (H), Raiders (A), Titans (A)
Analysis: After their upset win over the Roosters, the Tigers came crashing back to earth with a 34-14 loss to the Warriors that all but ended their slim finals hopes. The Tigers are missing Jahream Bula’s class at fullback, while Latu Fainu is still finding his feet as an NRL halfback. The Tigers play the Titans next up and again in the last round and also have a bye, so they can finish the season strongly and avoid a dreaded fourth wooden spoon. However, if they can’t get out of the bottom four it will likely be a disappointing season given the promise they showed early in the year and Benji Marshall needs every win he can get to ensure his future.
15. PARRAMATTA EELS (16 points, -125)
Predicted finish: 16th
Chance of finishing top eight: 0.5%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Raiders (A), Broncos (A), Storm (H), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (A), Roosters (H), Warriors (A), Knights (H)
Analysis: The Eels were brave in the first half, but ultimately were outclassed 32-10 by the Eels in the battle of the West. The confounding decision to play Dylan Brown at hooker and lock in just 40 minutes begs the question why they didn’t let him go before June 30 and try to get something in return, despite the five-eighth’s desire to stay. If Brown is no longer a starter at the Eels over the rest of the season then why is he at the club at all? If Jason Ryles is set o experiment with young players over the course of the rest of the season, the spoon is a realistic chance given their tough draw and that wouldn’t fill skipper Mitchell Moses with much confidence about spending the rest of his career at the club.
Who could replace O’Brien at Knights? | 04:01
16. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (16 points, -129)
Predicted finish: 15th
Chance of finishing top eight: 0.4%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Panthers (A), Sharks (H), Broncos (A), Titans (A), Eels (H), Dragons (H), bye, Roosters (A)
Analysis: The Rabbitohs would have done some soul searching over the bye, with Wayne Bennett no doubt challenging his players about what they want to get out of the rest of the year after their disappointing last start loss to Manly. The loss of Cody Walker for the rest of the season has all but ended Souths’ finals hopes, but they have plenty to play for, most notably avoiding a wooden spoon, which would be Bennett’s first in his decorated career. Souths have had a horror run with injuries this year, but they will be looking to finish the season strong to give them hope of turning things around in 2026. The next three weeks against the Panthers, Sharks and Broncos will be a tall order, but Souths will back themselves against the Titans, Eels and Dragons before their final bye and their final round clash with the Roosters looms as their grand final, with a win potentially robbing the Chooks of a finals berth.
17. GOLD COAST TITANS (14 points, -156)
Predicted finish: 17th
Chance of finishing top eight: 0%
Chance of finishing top four: 0%
Chance of winning minor premiership: 0%
Remaining games: Tigers (A), Warriors (A), Panthers (H), Rabbitohs (H), Sharks (A), Warriors (H), Dolphins (A), Tigers (H)
Analysis: It has been a sorry old season for the Titans, with their 26-14 loss to the Broncos in their derby ending their hopes of playing finals. The Titans have the worst defence of any team in the NRL and their horror points differential is likely to mean they will win the wooden spoon in a tight race to the NRL’s most unwanted team award. Des Hasler’s future at the club is all but over after the season, but the Titans still have plenty to play for. They need to convince Tino Fa’asuamaleaui that it is worth playing the rest of his career at the club and the key to that is unearthing a halves pairing, which has been an issue for the club for years. Clashes with the Tigers in Round 20 and also in the final round as well as the Rabbitohs in Round 23 loom as their Grand Finals to avoid the wooden spoon.
